A client wrote the following e-mail to me yesterday:
“If Facebook goes public, do you think it is worth getting into into it for a while? Ride the wave for a few weeks and see what happens. Let me know. I know you believe in the long term, but who knows, it might be worthwhile.”
To which I responded:
Do I “…think that it is worth getting into it for a while? Ride the wave for a few weeks and see what happens.” Of course I don’t know the answer for two reasons: 1. because we choose not to do individual stock analysis; and 2. I can’t see the future. But smarter people than me will also be pondering that question, and when I find information concerning the Facebook IPO I will send it to you for your consideration (see Forbes article here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2012/01/30/four-reasons-why-facebooks-ipo-is-irrelevant/print/). All that being said, however, my educated guess is that it is not worth the risk and I would advise against it. Don’t get me wrong, I like Facebook, and am an active user. It might also be a good or even great company. What I’m saying is that its STOCK might not be a good purchase in your investment portfolio.
If you are interested, I will endeavor to support that argument below. You did ask me for “my thoughts”! If you are not interested, then simply page down and go to the end of the e-mail.
First of all, as mentioned in my opening sentence, we don’t do individual stock analysis and choose to only use exchange traded funds (ETFs), open & closed-ended mutual funds, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) for investing in client portfolios. Over 95% of the trading volume on the New York Stock exchange today is done for and by institutional investors, many of them using high-speed computers and rapid program trading (up from 10% in the 1960s, and 70% in the 1990s). Along with the huge resources they bring to bear, we think this gives a huge advantage to institutional investors over retail investors. For this reason we support following the old adage…”if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em”. Therefore, we will only purchase the institutionally managed accounts in client portfolios that are listed at the beginning of this paragraph, and strongly urge clients not to venture into the realm of individual issues of stocks. At best we think a portfolio of individual issues, put together by retail investors, will not out-perform over the long-term institutionally managed accounts, and at worse you may end up becoming “trader chum”!
Secondly, based on taking a position in a stock for a few days or weeks, let’s be sure we all agree what we are talking about here – you are asking me, pure and simple, about a gamble, a bet, a speculation. This is, of course, more akin to asking me about black versus red in Atlantic City, NJ, or which pony to put some money down on at Monmouth Park Race Track. This is really about asking me, “how can I make some big money, quickly, with almost no effort?” Everyone’s been chasing this “golden ring” for 100s of years, and they will continue to do so for a millennium – I think we’re hard wired to do this (good for the continuation of the human species…survival of the fittest and all…bad behavior for long-term investing success). We don’t recommend our clients engage in this activity, or consider it “investing” for any financial goal or objective. We do recommend making money in investing the old fashion way – long-term, based on an asset allocation strategy, with quarterly rebalancing, in institutionally managed accounts, based on a measurable financial goal – in other words…the “boring” way!
Thirdly, if we agree that this is not about investing, or planning, then I can only give you my personal feeling about speculation and gambling…in the end, the house always wins. I don’t believe the possibility of the big kill, the thrill of the race, the ability to boast about “picking the winner”, or the adrenaline rush leading up to the finish (or after the finish if you were the winner) is worth the potential “cost”. However, many people do. If that is you then I would suggest a casino, a dog track, or a trip up to A.C., but please keep it out of the investment portfolio.
Finally, I believe one of my jobs (and one of the values/benefits you expected by hiring me) is to keep you on plan and not let the two biggest motivating human emotions (fear and greed) get you off track. I tried, but failed, last October 4th from keeping fear from taking you “off the track” when you took 50% of your stock holdings out of the equity markets on the lowest point of the whole year. Luckily, we were able to get you back fully invested pretty quickly, but still creating huge capital gains (unnecessary taxes) and missing out on some of the best performing days of 2012. Now, with the famous Facebook possibly coming public sometime in April or May, you’re asking me to “battle” that second motivating human emotion…greed. I hope I am more successful in the future than I have been in the past.
However, if the four points above do not support my position enough to convince you, I think there are some important questions that one must answer before investing in a Facebook IPO:
- Regardless of the “perceived” value of Facebook, will the proposed price of the IPO be too high to allow for much upside movement?
- How did other tech. company’s IPOs do in 2011 (i.e. IPO of LinkedIn that jumped to $94.25 on the first day of trading, and has gone nowhere since)?
- Buying is the easy part…what is the sell discipline? In other words, what will be the trigger for the sale of the stock – 10% drop in value, 20% drop in value, 50% increase in price, 100% increase in price?
- If you want to make a real impact on your plan and your investment portfolio, you’ve got to put some “real” money into this thing (but no more than 5% of the value of your overall portfolio). $10,000 doubled or even quadrupled won’t make a hill of difference in your overall plan (a 4% withdrawal on an extra $30,000 in your portfolio will garner you an extra $100 per month in retirement, versus the possibility of not even getting your original $10,000 investment back).
- Is Facebook an integral and necessary part of people’s lives, and getting more and more important each day…or are they taking it public now, at its peak, in order to capitalize its value for Mark Zuckerberg (at the expense of future shareholders)? Remember, Facebook is at its core an elaborate advertising delivery vehicle – there are no user fees. Stock prices go up based on expanding profits and expanding P/Es (price to earnings ratios). What is the potential for both of these in Facebook’s case (especially in light of the fact that Facebook will probably go public at an already excessive P/E of 80 as compared to the overall market at a P/E of about 12)?
- How can you get the stock in the initial public offering (limited supply, difficult to get your hands on), and avoid buying the stock that is being “pumped and dumped” after the market opens on the first day of trading?
Here’s another article from Forbes that tried to answer the above referenced six questions: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2012/01/30/facebook-hype-or-substance/
I hope you read through this whole thing, and got here to the end. I’m sorry about its length, but I spent a great deal of time thinking about your question, and my reasoning for my answer.
Here’s to continued “Planning Today For Tomorrow’s Success!”™
Timothy A. Knotts, CFP®, Certified Financial Planner™
The Hogan-Knotts Financial Group, Inc.